Morning Rant #1

A couple of polls show a tightening of the race, McCain and Palin are pounding Obama on taxes and it seems early voter turnout in a few states (Ohio) is not as high as Obama supporters would hope.

Pardon me if I seem too complacent, but I feel it in the air: the election is essentially over. Obama is going to win and win big.

In his recent stump speeches, Senator Obama has been telling his crowds not to get too comfortable with big poll results. It's a brilliant strategy, and he should continue to reinforce that, but I have never thought complacency was going to be a problem in this election.

Too many people have fallen on hard times and are taking this year's choice too seriously. Millions -- and I put myself in this group - - simply can not wait to get into a voting booth and vote for the first African-American president -- and, as I am proof, it is not just blacks who await that moment. Every white Obama-supporting friend of mine thinks this is the coolest thing they've ever gotten to do (on a civic level at least). Plus, the Dems have the issues on their side this time. Oh yeah! And most Americans can't wait to see Dubya waving goodbye (and good riddance!).

I predict a big victory -- 7 to 8 points. I also want to say again that I predict Obama will win Indiana. And I want to make another big prediction that no one will necessarily care about: Obama will not only win Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado, he will pull off a huge upset in Georgia. Florida is going Dem, Pennsylvania will stay blue and there's a chance we may even see Ohio vote for Obama.

If all that is true, this election will be a blowout. Nate Silver reminded Rachel Maddow on her radio show yesterday that a lot of the polling in the primaries was 6-7 points off the result in Obama's favor. If this is the case, we could be looking at a result that is similar to some of these outlying polls. Either way, the margin is going to be so big, that any shenanigans the GOP is hoping to carry out in swing states will not be enough. Obama's victory will be a decisive one.