Yeah. Right.
Don't take it from me. Take it from Nate.
The first cluster coincides with Gallup's so-called "traditional" likely voter model, which considers both a voter's stated intention and his past voting behavior. The second cluster coincides with their "expanded" likely voter model, which considers solely the voter's stated intentions. ... The pollster, in other words, is making a determination as to how the voter will behave. In the "expanded" model, the pollster lets the voter speak for himself.
Frankly, I find polls showing a 4-6 point gap between likely and registered voters to be utterly ridiculous.
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