A couple of polls show a tightening of the race, McCain and Palin are pounding Obama on taxes and it seems early voter turnout in a few states (Ohio) is not as high as Obama supporters would hope.
Pardon me if I seem too complacent, but I feel it in the air: the election is essentially over. Obama is going to win and win big.
In his recent stump speeches, Senator Obama has been telling his crowds not to get too comfortable with big poll results. It's a brilliant strategy, and he should continue to reinforce that, but I have never thought complacency was going to be a problem in this election.
Too many people have fallen on hard times and are taking this year's choice too seriously. Millions -- and I put myself in this group - - simply can not wait to get into a voting booth and vote for the first African-American president -- and, as I am proof, it is not just blacks who await that moment. Every white Obama-supporting friend of mine thinks this is the coolest thing they've ever gotten to do (on a civic level at least). Plus, the Dems have the issues on their side this time. Oh yeah! And most Americans can't wait to see Dubya waving goodbye (and good riddance!).
I predict a big victory -- 7 to 8 points. I also want to say again that I predict Obama will win Indiana. And I want to make another big prediction that no one will necessarily care about: Obama will not only win Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado, he will pull off a huge upset in Georgia. Florida is going Dem, Pennsylvania will stay blue and there's a chance we may even see Ohio vote for Obama.
If all that is true, this election will be a blowout. Nate Silver reminded Rachel Maddow on her radio show yesterday that a lot of the polling in the primaries was 6-7 points off the result in Obama's favor. If this is the case, we could be looking at a result that is similar to some of these outlying polls. Either way, the margin is going to be so big, that any shenanigans the GOP is hoping to carry out in swing states will not be enough. Obama's victory will be a decisive one.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Monday, October 27, 2008
Never miNd
Sullivan gets a closer listen and its not what we thought.
"Redistributot!"
I had a funny feeling about that after I posted it.
"Redistributot!"
I had a funny feeling about that after I posted it.
NIGGER? PUH-LEEEZE!
We all saw this coming, right?
Sarah Palin is a piece of garbage. She not only heard what that person said, but she did nothing. She should have stopped, turned around, and said, "FUCK OFF!"
Sarah Palin is a piece of garbage. She not only heard what that person said, but she did nothing. She should have stopped, turned around, and said, "FUCK OFF!"
PALIN AS SPECIAL NEEDS ENVOY
It's been bugging me all weekend -- and I'm sure it will win me no new supporters -- that Sarah Palin is saying what she will first devote her energies to as Vice President is special needs children.
Honorable, indeed -- the number of special needs children is advancing and they are often overlooked/shunned/pushed aside. However, I don't believe helping special needs children is the job of a Vice President; it's more for a First Lady -- or a First Man .
I want the Vice President to be an advisor to the President. I want my VP in the Oval Office bouncing ideas off the leader of the free world. Working on the economy, foreign affairs, the environment. It's pretty clear that a VP Palin will be pushed to the sidelines and thrown out in public to feed the base whever the pressure is on McCain. Do you really envision her sitting in a meeting with the National Security Council having a serious discussion with 4-star generals on how to handle Syria? I would hope that, God forbid, if she is the next VP, that this is exactly what her role will be, so that in case McCain croaks, she'll hopefully have enough knowledge to hold her own.
Shortly after she was chosen, I told a family member that she was a "farce" because she's so unqualified, etc. They responded, "You agree she would be ready in 4 years, though, right?"
I knew the easy answer to that is "she needs to be ready now, not 4 years from now," but I granted them their premise. This was before we knew how thorougly mis-informed she is on every important issue facing this country (including energy, which she claims to know so much about).
Now I'm not so sure. Would Palin be ready in 4 years?
I've already determined that her political career is finished once/if McCain loses. However, let's say they win. Where does Palin fit into all this? Seriously.
Her first major address was on Special Needs? Shouldn't her first major address have been on, oh, I don't know, confronting the terrorist threat? How about showing us exactly what she means when she says her area of "expertise" is in energy? An address on her vision for America's energy future would suffice.
Then again, who am I kidding? She can't even hold a press conference for fear that she will absolutely destroy the campaign. It's no wonder they made her first major policy address on special needs, an issue that anyone with 3 credit hours in public speaking could pull off.
Honorable, indeed -- the number of special needs children is advancing and they are often overlooked/shunned/pushed aside. However, I don't believe helping special needs children is the job of a Vice President; it's more for a First Lady -- or a First Man .
I want the Vice President to be an advisor to the President. I want my VP in the Oval Office bouncing ideas off the leader of the free world. Working on the economy, foreign affairs, the environment. It's pretty clear that a VP Palin will be pushed to the sidelines and thrown out in public to feed the base whever the pressure is on McCain. Do you really envision her sitting in a meeting with the National Security Council having a serious discussion with 4-star generals on how to handle Syria? I would hope that, God forbid, if she is the next VP, that this is exactly what her role will be, so that in case McCain croaks, she'll hopefully have enough knowledge to hold her own.
Shortly after she was chosen, I told a family member that she was a "farce" because she's so unqualified, etc. They responded, "You agree she would be ready in 4 years, though, right?"
I knew the easy answer to that is "she needs to be ready now, not 4 years from now," but I granted them their premise. This was before we knew how thorougly mis-informed she is on every important issue facing this country (including energy, which she claims to know so much about).
Now I'm not so sure. Would Palin be ready in 4 years?
I've already determined that her political career is finished once/if McCain loses. However, let's say they win. Where does Palin fit into all this? Seriously.
Her first major address was on Special Needs? Shouldn't her first major address have been on, oh, I don't know, confronting the terrorist threat? How about showing us exactly what she means when she says her area of "expertise" is in energy? An address on her vision for America's energy future would suffice.
Then again, who am I kidding? She can't even hold a press conference for fear that she will absolutely destroy the campaign. It's no wonder they made her first major policy address on special needs, an issue that anyone with 3 credit hours in public speaking could pull off.
INTER-RACIAL THREESOME, ANYONE?
I guess John McCain wants people to have images of Reid and Obama tag-teaming Pelosi, eh? Why else use the phrase "threesome"? Don't tell me you don't think this is a Rovian manipulation of the language.
Pathetic.
Pathetic.
IDIOTS
When Elizabeth Hasselbeck is your go-to girl, you know your campaign -- heck, your entire movement -- is dead.
I mean, how stupid are these people? They send up this vapid TV personality to talk about the $150,000 spent on Palin's clothes -- and as a result, they keep this story in the news for a couple more cycles.
Brilliant.
I mean, how stupid are these people? They send up this vapid TV personality to talk about the $150,000 spent on Palin's clothes -- and as a result, they keep this story in the news for a couple more cycles.
Brilliant.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
DRUDGE IS TOAST
Matt Drudge, internet-gossip hag, will be the smelly, natural by-product of the beaten McCain volunteer story. Because yet another attempt to push the campaign narrative in McCain's direction has blown up in his face.
As we all know by now, the story of the McCain volunteer who claimed a BIG SCARY BLACK MAN carved a backwards "B" into her cheek was made up. And yesterday, Matt Drudge had a 14-inch hard-on for the story, complete with his little red siren -- so it must have been true.
Just the other day, Eric Boehlert wrote of how Drudge's influence this campaign season seems to have diminished. I happen to agree with him. It seems every story he has tried to push on the public has pretty much become a dud -- from his hyperventilating over the "lipstick on a pig" to his constant pushing of the ACORN story.
I quit reading Drudge everyday about a month ago (I've been on his site about 3 times since). My life is so much better because of it. I can't tell you how many times I was in a good mood, only to go to his site and have my day ruined by some blaring headline that later turned out to be a total non-story. Finally, I realized that I don't need him. There are plenty of places on the web to go for news. Real news. Even if it is a partisan website, a la Huffington Post or Real Clear Politics.
People are going to start abandoning Drudge on a massive scale. Especially since he will not apologize for his pushing this fake story about the McCain volunteer. The country is moving center-left and, as McCain's camp will tell you, we're all getting sick of the petty negativity pushed by the GOP for the last 30 years. Drudge, being their favorite avenue to push their slime tactics, will be going down with them.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
IF OBAMA SAID THIS....
Reported on Ben Smith's blog today:
If Barack Obama had called New York City the elite, a city where everyone thinks they are "better than anyone else", we'd be hearing nothing but "9-11, 9-11, 9-11, 9-11, 9-11" until the end of the election. Rudy himself would don a dress and shout it from the top of the Chrysler building. And they'd amp up their Obama-as-terrorist-sympathizer meme and fall just short of blaming him for the destruction of the World Trade Center.
How do these anti-American Republicans get away with this? They are a bunch of cowards.
I'd like to point out that I live in Chicago, the 3rd biggest city in America. Therefore, in Palin's pea brain, I am an elitist.
Yet, I spent the majority of my childhood in a small town, and I can honestly say I met more snobby people who thought they were better than me in that small-town than I've met in 12 years living in Chicago -- in the nicest areas, I might add. (My sister works in NYC and feels the same way.)
So...
Fuck you, John McCain!
In tonight's NBC News interview with Brian Williams, McCain explains that the "elites" are located in D.C. and New York City:
WILLIAMS: Who is a member of the elite?
PALIN: Oh, I guess just people who think that they're better than anyone else. And-- John McCain and I are so committed to serving every American. Hard-working, middle-class Americans who are so desiring of this economy getting put back on the right track. And winning these wars. And America's starting to reach her potential. And that is opportunity and hope provided everyone equally. So anyone who thinks that they are-- I guess-- better than anyone else, that's-- that's my definition of elitism.
WILLIAMS: So it's not education? It's not income-based? It's--
PALIN: Anyone who thinks that they're better than someone else.
WILLIAMS: --a state of mind? It's not geography?
PALIN: 'Course not.
WILLIAMS: Senator?
MCCAIN: I-- I know where a lot of 'em live. (LAUGH)
WILLIAMS: Where's that?
MCCAIN: Well, in our nation's capital and New York City. I've seen it. I've lived there. I know the town. I know-- I know what a lot of these elitists are. The ones that she never went to a cocktail party with in Georgetown. I'll be very frank with you. Who think that they can dictate what they believe to America rather than let Americans decide for themselves.
If Barack Obama had called New York City the elite, a city where everyone thinks they are "better than anyone else", we'd be hearing nothing but "9-11, 9-11, 9-11, 9-11, 9-11" until the end of the election. Rudy himself would don a dress and shout it from the top of the Chrysler building. And they'd amp up their Obama-as-terrorist-sympathizer meme and fall just short of blaming him for the destruction of the World Trade Center.
How do these anti-American Republicans get away with this? They are a bunch of cowards.
I'd like to point out that I live in Chicago, the 3rd biggest city in America. Therefore, in Palin's pea brain, I am an elitist.
Yet, I spent the majority of my childhood in a small town, and I can honestly say I met more snobby people who thought they were better than me in that small-town than I've met in 12 years living in Chicago -- in the nicest areas, I might add. (My sister works in NYC and feels the same way.)
So...
Fuck you, John McCain!
THIS CAN'T BE GOOD
McCain is pulling money out of Kerry states and spending it all in Bush states. They're playing nothing but defense.
If McCain is losing hope in Colorado and Pennsylvania and not trying to capture any of the states Kerry won, then his campaign has conceded the race. On top of that, he's being a dick to all the down-ticket Republicans.
McCain has dramatically slashed his ad spending in Wisconsin and New Hampshire and reduced it in Pennsylvania, suggesting that he's either losing hope or giving up hope in winning in three states that went for John Kerry in 2004, or that he doesn't have ample enough resources for them.
He's also reduced his spending in Colorado, which went for Bush but is showing a lead for Obama, suggesting he may be losing hope there, too.
If McCain is losing hope in Colorado and Pennsylvania and not trying to capture any of the states Kerry won, then his campaign has conceded the race. On top of that, he's being a dick to all the down-ticket Republicans.
The fact is, when you’re the party standard-bearer, you have an obligation to fight to the finish. I think they can still win. But if they don’t think that, they need to look at how Bob Dole finished out his campaign in 1996 and not try to take down as many Republicans with them as they can. Instead of campaigning in Electoral College states, Dole was campaigning in places he knew he didn’t have a chance to beat Clinton, but where he could energize key House and Senate races. I think you’ll find these sentiments shared by MANY of my fellow Republican strategists.”
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
THIS MADE MY EYES WELL UP
I know that on Election Day and after, we're going to hear a lot of stories like this. And they're all gonna make me weep like a baby.
If you're like me, you're taking the day after the election off of work, because, either way, I'm going to be too hung over to function on November 5th.
For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn't in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president.
If you're like me, you're taking the day after the election off of work, because, either way, I'm going to be too hung over to function on November 5th.
RELAX
The Associated Press poll that the Douchebag Drudge is reportedly pimping on his website today (I don't read him anymore, and my life is so much better for it), is a piece of garbage. It claims the race is tied.
Yeah. Right.
Don't take it from me. Take it from Nate.
Yeah. Right.
Don't take it from me. Take it from Nate.
The first cluster coincides with Gallup's so-called "traditional" likely voter model, which considers both a voter's stated intention and his past voting behavior. The second cluster coincides with their "expanded" likely voter model, which considers solely the voter's stated intentions. ... The pollster, in other words, is making a determination as to how the voter will behave. In the "expanded" model, the pollster lets the voter speak for himself.
Frankly, I find polls showing a 4-6 point gap between likely and registered voters to be utterly ridiculous.
IOWA? SERIOUSLY?
McCain is going to be giving an interview to Meet The Press this Saturday.
From Waterloo, Iowa.
Survey USA has Obama up 13 in Iowa. What the hell is McCain doing wasting time in Iowa? He was there last week, too. Proof again that this campaign is poorly managed with no strategy. If I were McCain, I'd set up residence in Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania and hope you hold on to all the Bush states. Going to Iowa is dumb. Dumb.
Dumb.
UPDATE: Publius points out how thoroughly screwed McCain is -- and that hoping to win PA is a bad strategy. What do I know?
From Waterloo, Iowa.
Survey USA has Obama up 13 in Iowa. What the hell is McCain doing wasting time in Iowa? He was there last week, too. Proof again that this campaign is poorly managed with no strategy. If I were McCain, I'd set up residence in Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania and hope you hold on to all the Bush states. Going to Iowa is dumb. Dumb.
Dumb.
UPDATE: Publius points out how thoroughly screwed McCain is -- and that hoping to win PA is a bad strategy. What do I know?
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NOMINATE HER IN '12!
Per Marc Ambinder
I disagree. Palin's national political career is over after Nov. 4th. She's a huge liability on McCain, and it will resonate within the party in the aftermath of this election.
Re-inventing herself won't work -- we all know what we need to know now. She is intellectually void, to the right of 75% of the country, and a habitual liar. The GOP is not going to risk it with her again. Besides: Obama would trounce her, unless he turns out to be worse than Georg.... Sorry, I can't even say that with a straight face.
My guess is they're going to try and find their version of Barack Obama for 2012. Partly because of his race, but mostly because he is young, attractive, articulate and, supposedly well-liked in his state, I will tell you right now, Bobby Jindal is going to be on the GOP ticket in 2012. Palin will not.
The question is whether her political recalibration will be enough by 2012 to sustain a political majority outside the Republican Party. Mike Huckabee doesn't need to rethink himself all that much -- a few positions here, a few positions there, some emphasis in different corners -- and he might well present himself as the most electable conservative candidate.
again, i come down on the side of palin here. i'm guessing that the GOP primary is going to be all about telling the base that it's not their fault, and palin is going to be second to none on that score.
I disagree. Palin's national political career is over after Nov. 4th. She's a huge liability on McCain, and it will resonate within the party in the aftermath of this election.
Re-inventing herself won't work -- we all know what we need to know now. She is intellectually void, to the right of 75% of the country, and a habitual liar. The GOP is not going to risk it with her again. Besides: Obama would trounce her, unless he turns out to be worse than Georg.... Sorry, I can't even say that with a straight face.
My guess is they're going to try and find their version of Barack Obama for 2012. Partly because of his race, but mostly because he is young, attractive, articulate and, supposedly well-liked in his state, I will tell you right now, Bobby Jindal is going to be on the GOP ticket in 2012. Palin will not.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
STATES McCAIN/PALIN HAVE "GIVEN UP" ON
Michigan was first. Today, 3 to 4 more states are being thrown around. They don't know what to do. An Iowa GOP Spokesman thinks the state should still be in play, but they're getting their teeth kicked in in Iowa (it's because of the proximity to Illinois -- duh!). My guess is McCain will be living in PA, OH, IN and NC for the next two weeks.
Michigan
New Hampshire
Colorado
Iowa
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Up Next?
Pennsylvania?
Virginia?
Minnesota?
UPDATE: By the way, anyone wanna bet Obama wins Indiana? Big?
UPDATE II: "McCain Curtails Ads in NH and WI"
Michigan was first. Today, 3 to 4 more states are being thrown around. They don't know what to do. An Iowa GOP Spokesman thinks the state should still be in play, but they're getting their teeth kicked in in Iowa (it's because of the proximity to Illinois -- duh!). My guess is McCain will be living in PA, OH, IN and NC for the next two weeks.
Michigan
New Hampshire
Colorado
Iowa
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Up Next?
Pennsylvania?
Virginia?
Minnesota?
UPDATE: By the way, anyone wanna bet Obama wins Indiana? Big?
UPDATE II: "McCain Curtails Ads in NH and WI"
I'M BACK! I'M BACK!
So, 6 years ago, I had the idea to start my own blog, but I gave it up after I realized how hard it is to post 20-30 interesting quips a day. I quickly abandoned the idea -- and never bothered to delete the blog I had created.
On a whim the other day, I typed in my old blog's address and -- wham! --it was still there -- my old posts, everything. I couldn't believe it. It was like walking into a house that you used to live in and finding one of your old baseball cards or seeing your name still sits in the cement on the sidewalk in front.
Reading the posts below, it strikes me that 2002 really was a terrible year to be a progressive/Democrat. And my tirades against people who were STILL blaming the 2000 election on Nader just shows how fractured our side was nearly 2 years after the stunning, demoralizing outcome of 2000.
The last post I did in 2002 was about Mediawhoresonline.com (below). That site was really the beginning of the netroots, no? Correct me if I'm wrong, but several of our more favorite bloggers, like Eschaton, got started there. I miss that site. (Did they ever determine exactly who was behind it?)
Anyway, I think I'm gonna give this thing another try. Only, this time, I'm not going to pressure myself to post 50 times a day, a la Sullivan. I think it'll be more like John Cole at Balloon Juice, who posts when he has the time and usually gets 4-5 good ones a day.
Starting this late in the election season makes me feel like a September call-up in the big leagues. I hope, like some of those call-ups, that I can have a small impact on the team and help us bring home the prize on Nov. 4th.
So, 6 years ago, I had the idea to start my own blog, but I gave it up after I realized how hard it is to post 20-30 interesting quips a day. I quickly abandoned the idea -- and never bothered to delete the blog I had created.
On a whim the other day, I typed in my old blog's address and -- wham! --it was still there -- my old posts, everything. I couldn't believe it. It was like walking into a house that you used to live in and finding one of your old baseball cards or seeing your name still sits in the cement on the sidewalk in front.
Reading the posts below, it strikes me that 2002 really was a terrible year to be a progressive/Democrat. And my tirades against people who were STILL blaming the 2000 election on Nader just shows how fractured our side was nearly 2 years after the stunning, demoralizing outcome of 2000.
The last post I did in 2002 was about Mediawhoresonline.com (below). That site was really the beginning of the netroots, no? Correct me if I'm wrong, but several of our more favorite bloggers, like Eschaton, got started there. I miss that site. (Did they ever determine exactly who was behind it?)
Anyway, I think I'm gonna give this thing another try. Only, this time, I'm not going to pressure myself to post 50 times a day, a la Sullivan. I think it'll be more like John Cole at Balloon Juice, who posts when he has the time and usually gets 4-5 good ones a day.
Starting this late in the election season makes me feel like a September call-up in the big leagues. I hope, like some of those call-ups, that I can have a small impact on the team and help us bring home the prize on Nov. 4th.
Monday, October 14, 2002
Is it me or has Media Whores Online really gone downhill lately? I mean, since they've been back from their lengthy summer vacation, which ended in August, the content hasn't been as snappy and it hasn't been as fun to use. You can even make the case that ever since Salon ran its expose on them, it has taken a turn for the worse. This week, they're on vacation again.
On top of their need for constant time off, they have removed the discussion board from the site and have altered "The Record" so that it doesn't update as soon as you make a post (full disclosure: I had pissed them off so much with my pro-Nader rants that they blocked me from being able to use it at all last Spring). Instead, it seems they collect 1-2 weeks of submissions from people and then post the ones that they like. Not very democratic -- especially for a site that claims to take an "unbiased" look at the news and the people who report it.
On top of their need for constant time off, they have removed the discussion board from the site and have altered "The Record" so that it doesn't update as soon as you make a post (full disclosure: I had pissed them off so much with my pro-Nader rants that they blocked me from being able to use it at all last Spring). Instead, it seems they collect 1-2 weeks of submissions from people and then post the ones that they like. Not very democratic -- especially for a site that claims to take an "unbiased" look at the news and the people who report it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
